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We’ve been here before.
Once again, Trump is entering the White House just as major climate regulations have been finalized, threatening to undo the progress we desperately need and fought so hard for. In 2017, Trump entered the White House on the heels of efforts by the Obama Administration to cut methane emissions from new oil and gas facilities. By March of 2017, Trump had ordered his EPA to review the rules and eventually roll back all safeguards for methane.
This time looks to be no different. In 2025 Trump will enter office just as the Biden Administration finalizes a multi-part effort to slash methane emissions from oil and gas — including EPA methane rules that improve upon Obama-era safeguards, penalties for chronic polluters, and updates to an antiquated and flawed emissions reporting system. Once again, Trump has already signaled his intentions to reward the oil and gas industry, which bankrolled his campaign with actions to weaken and altogether gut Biden-ra rules.
While the details of his polluter-friendly intentions are still unknown, it is not hard to imagine the negative impact they will have on our health and climate. So many of us are filled with anxious concern for our future—again.
Now for the good news.
Let us assure you that even though this road seems familiar, things will be different this time. The oil and gas industry may have a friend in the White House, but he can’t hide them from their biggest problem: the truth. We are entering “The Era of Accountability” for polluters, and here’s one way we can ensure Big Oil is held responsible for their methane emissions: pressure from across the pond.
On August 4, 2024, the European Commission set into force unprecedented requirements to measure, report, verify, and reduce oil and gas emissions across the entire supply chain. What made the rules unique, though, was that they did not just apply them to activities within the EU, they also applied to the supply chains outside their borders if the gas would be imported into the EU market. These rules drew a clear line in the sand: if you can’t meet our standards, then we don’t want your gas.
At the same time, U.S. producers and their financiers were preparing to “open the floodgates” for LNG exports. In fact, they have quickly sunk significant time, resources and considerable capital into their plans for expansion that they hoped would nearly triple current export capacity — and these plans were based on the expectation to grow their share of the EU LNG import market.
This is where things get interesting.
President Trump has already promised to dismantle Biden’s action on methane and if he follows through and the EU doesn’t budge on their current positions, then by 2027 — when more stringent requirements for supply chain reporting kick in — U.S. LNG exports to the EU, which made up half of U.S. LNG exports last year, could begin to taper out. Even our best rules, which are currently in place, may not be good enough because they only apply to parts of the supply chain. Plus, by the industry’s own admission, it would be nearly impossible to track the entire supply chain, which is exactly what Europe is trying to address.
Europe’s new regulations cast serious doubts on any plans for the previously mentioned LNG expansion.
And so the truth begins to come to light. The industry claims to be “reducing emissions in line with science” but doesn’t have the receipts to prove it.
If the EU remains steadfast in their commitment to transparency and accurate reporting, they have the opportunity to be a powerful agent of positive change in one of two ways. Either they force the U.S. oil and gas industry to walk the talk on methane emissions reductions and show us the receipts, or they deal a serious blow to an industry that refuses to face the truth.
Some companies may scramble to come up with a new tactic of deceit, others might try their hand at transparency in an attempt to stand out. Whatever happens next, we will gain valuable insight into the truth of oil and gas methane emissions and reduction efforts. The Era of Accountability is upon us, whether Trump likes it or not, and that gives us hope.
